The State(s) of the Nile

The Egyptian Nile?

Ancient Egypt's dependence on the Nile is a renowned fact. Egypt is most commonly associated with it, and vice versa, but why so? The Nile’s flow consists of the White and Blue Nile with their confluence in Khartoum, Sudan. The White Nile originates from water feeding into Lake Victoria (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania). More importantly, 85% of its streamflow consists of the Blue Nile sourced from the Ethiopian Highlands.

Figure 1: The River Nile and its 11 riparian countries

Conflicts along the 6650km stretch of water have been longstanding, but recent actions have triggered the problems and brought to light a politics of possession over, and rights to, natural resources.

Historically, an Egyptian hydro-hegemony has presided over the Nile. This combined with its colonial histories and interventions sets up a framework for analysing the transboundary water conflicts that are almost inevitable, whilst possibly exploring opportunities for cooperation too.

The colonial Nile Waters Treaties of the early 20th century have perpetuated this hegemony by forever favouring Egypt. The 1902 Anglo-Ethiopia Treaty and the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty not only prevented Ethiopia from obstructing the flow of the Blue Nile, but on paper granted Egypt natural and historical rights over the Nile. In addition to allocating 48 BCM of water to Egypt, it also gave it veto power against developments along the Nile. Decisions made subsequently have been governed by these bilateral and other multilateral agreements that are advantageous to Egypt and often the British Nile.

Figure 2 displays some of the damming projects that have been introduced. The GERD has been one of the most conflicted, considering its location in Ethiopia and its considerable size.

Figure 2: Dam projects along the River Nile

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Figure 3: Short video on the GERD project

The GERD is located near Ethiopia's border with Sudan. With a reservoir volume of 67.37 billion cubic metres, it has the potential to provide 6.45 gigawatts of hydro-electric power. With the ability to provide electricity to Ethiopia's population, it helps counter the energy insecurity that the country faces with over 65 million people not having access to electricity. Moreover, it has facilitated job creation with its construction, and indirect operational jobs. The ability to export electricity only provides greater economic incentives to escape historical poverty. It is a no brainer for Ethiopia.

However, it has not been smooth-sailing. Contestation from downstream countries, predominantly Egypt, resulted in a political deadlock. Issues of secrecy in terms of the scale and impacts of the dam on Ethiopia's behalf have caused the breakdown of collaboration, which is furthered by Egypt's retaliation to the offense against its hegemony. The GERD represents a counter-hegemonic move that uses natural geographical advantages of being upstream to reshuffle the historical power asymmetries that have restricted Ethiopia.

This post discusses the historical dispute over claims to the River Nile, with more recent developments seemingly adding fuel to the conflict. However, could it be that modern counter-hegemonic discord may provide a path to better collaboration frameworks, especially for transboundary water resources? 

Some food for thought before the next post!